Economics – Indicators, Credit Cycles &

Which indicator mix would most strongly signal an upcoming expansion: rising unemployment and wider spreads, or rising building permits, narrower spreads, and a rising $S\&P500$?

Rising building permits, narrower spreads, and rising $S\&P500$.

How does the exchange rate channel transmit monetary easing to the economy?

Lower rates weaken the currency, raising net exports and demand.

When do commodities typically peak in the business cycle, and what often leads?

Near the cycle peak; energy often leads.

Why does a negative output gap typically justify expansionary policy?

It signals economic slack and recessionary conditions.